It seems to be a given at this moment that everyone who can will plant wheat this fall. It looks like it will be worth somewhere between $4.00 and $8.00 a bushel, so planting wheat looks like a fairly good bet. But what are those input costs, and weather patterns going to do? That’s anybody’s guess, but those questions are no different than they have been for the last 100 years!

One thing that might be different is the influence of the futures market on agricultural commodities. A hundred years ago, there was no futures board and folks relied mostly on the weather and their own hard work. Today, the hard work hasn’t changed, but what folks think they might get for their crop is a whole lot different! Not to mention that cattle are handled and affected the same way. It was my understanding that the futures board was created for the benefit of the folks raising the product and was a reflection of that particular commodity. It appears that things have been reversed and the commodity is a reflection of the futures!

The overall agriculture market is fantastic right now compared to the last 50 years! We’ve had several years now where a calf off the cow has brought over $500 a head, and in some cases over $800.00! How many years out of the last 50 can we say we’ve done that? Everyone would sure like to hit the top of the market, but isn’t nine closer to ten than it is to five?

The calf market this fall is kind of following normal patterns, with the calves right off the cow getting discounted to calves that are weaned and preconditioned. When is the difference enough? In the last week, there have been a lot of 350 to 550 lb heifer calves being quoted from $95.00 to $110.00, while at the same time, yearling heifers of the same quality have been quoted from $100.00 to $115.00! With or without wheat, low or high priced grain, and all those other factors that come into play, doesn’t it seem like getting more dollars per pound, after you add a couple hundred pounds, is a great deal? It certainly looks better than giving $140.00 for a five hundred pound steer and having to back him up $20.00 or more per hundred!

Keep in mind that over the next month, there will probably be more people in tractors than at the sale barns, and lots of high quality calves going to town. If all of our neighbors are too busy to buy calves, then isn’t that usually a good time to buy one? Think about the opportunities that are coming our way. The future looks very bright!

INTERNET VIDEO SALE NEXT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2007!

The U.S. cow herd still does not look like it is rebuilding. Cow numbers in the packing plants are still running good, and the price for cull cows is still good enough to put some of the light bred cows through the plant! It looks like a great time to own a few cows and wean off some $600.00 calves! The yearlings to go into the big feedyards have to come from somewhere, and they all start out as calves! Wouldn’t it be ok to have the factory and sell the product rather than buy the product all the time?

To graze $8.00 wheat or not to graze, that seems to be the question this year. This would certainly have to be one of the highest prices for wheat in history, but how many people have wheat to sell right now? And will it still be worth eight dollars when every body plants wheat on every available acre?

Why wouldn’t a person graze wheat this year? If it stays this high, they only have to plant a third of normal and get the same money, which leaves two thirds of the acreage to graze cattle and earn more income. If wheat was only worth $2.00, then a person would have to plant a lot more acres in order to maximize the money, and grazing cattle would still be extra income! It doesn’t seem out of this world to get a few hundred dollars per acre out of grazing cattle, especially when it appears they will be worth $112.00 a pound next May!

If nobody grazes any wheat, and all the calves have to go into grow yards, will that make them worth more or less? Wheat has been grazed for years around 35 cents a pound, while the grow lots and feedyards are desperately trying to get the cost of gain below $.70! It sure looks like a big opportunity!

COMING NEXT WEEK TO WINTER LIVESTOCK IN ENID:

Randy Schmutz ABBI Breeding Stock Sale 8:00 am Tuesday
Winter Livestock Monthly Cow Sale 12:00 pm Tuesday
Gene Baker Fall Classic Sale 9:00 am Thursday

On Tuesday at Winter Livestock:

T & T Edwards 20 Blk/Bwf/Xbred cows, bred to Ang/Char bulls
4 to 6 yrs old, early spring calvers!
30 Outstanding calves, Charlais sired, 400-600 lbs
S Bar R Cattle 40 Blk/Bwf bred cows, 3-7 yrs old, fall calvers
Manny Jones 50 Blk/Bwf Angus cows, 6-10 yrs, bred Angus

How much better can it get? Over the last twenty years, wheat on the board has ranged anywhere from $2.50 to $9.00 a bushel, averaging around $3.50 to $4.00. During the same time period, feeder cattle have ranged from $55.00 to $120.00, averaging around $85.00. It sure looks like we have one of the best markets in captivity, and there are certainly some ways to make money in it!

If we’ve been satisfied on $4.00 wheat for twenty years, then all we have to do this year is plant half our crop to wheat, and completely graze out the other half. If we put one head to the acre on a graze out program, and they gain two pounds a day, at the end of the season, which is approximately 175 days, then we have put on 350 lbs of beef per acre, which at today’s prices is approximately $400.00 an acre! If wheat is worth $8.00 a bushel, and we get 35 bushels per acre, doesn’t that come out to only $280.00 per acre?

I think it might be an understatement to say that there is an outstanding opportunity to make some money on $8.00 wheat and $115.00 feeder cattle! Get possession of the stockers or the factories, turn them out, take care of them, and tell the banker to get ready!

Take some time to come to the auction or at least participate over the internet! The next few weeks will have everyone and their dog busy trying to plant high dollar wheat, and there will be some great opportunities at the auction!

UPCOMING EVENTS AT WINTER LIVESTOCK IN ENID:

SPECIAL WEANED, PRECONDITIONED CALF SALE NEXT TUESDAY!!

Bill Davis 75 Fancy, Angus/Char x strs/hfrs, 500-700lbs, weaned,
Out of Pollard Farms Angus bulls, Vacc.
R & S Cattle 150 Angus/Limox strs/hfrs, 400-600 lbs, weaned, vacc.
HAWS Farms 150 Angus sired strs/hfrs, 500-600 lbs, weaned, vacc
Jim Hartless 65 Ang/Lim/Brangx strs, off grass, 800-900 lbs

OUR NEXT MONTHLY COW SALE IS TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2007!

DON’T FORGET TWO ABBI BREEDING STOCK AUCTIONS
SEPTEMBER 25 AND 27, 2007

NEXT VIDEO SALE IS OCTOBER 2, 2007

So far it looks like we’ll have a very good corn crop and good chances of wheat pasture. At nearly $8.00 a bushel for wheat, it would make excellent sense to hedge that and then turn some cattle out on it. There will be many opportunities coming up this fall, and it probably wouldn’t hurt to take advantage of them!

There have been a lot of changes in the country scenery in the last couple of weeks. It looks like almost every piece of farm ground has been gone over at least once, and with rain in the forecast, there will probably be tractors running everywhere next week. Corn harvest is well under way, and the bins will soon be full!

The yearling market at the moment is fantastic! Seven and eight weight steers bringing $120.00, with 900 to 1000 lb steers bringing up to $115.00! Six weight steers seem to be a pretty good buy at $120.00 to $125.00, especially with the futures board not far from $120.00! Calves are just beginning to show up, and at the moment, not every one is ready for them. Opportunity is knocking!

It’s amazing how many times that we pass up things because we don’t want to take the time to take advantage of them. Just a little patch of grass and a little bit of feed and care could save a person several hundred dollars in getting some calves ready for wheat! It’s almost an historical fact that every year calf prices go down when the field work is being done, and then jump through the roof when the moisture comes and the wheat is out of the ground. Timing can make a huge difference in the profit or loss on some cattle.

OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP AT WINTER LIVESTOCK:

Tuesday, September 11 CattleUSA video auction at 9:00 am
Tuesday, September 11 Regular cattle sale after the video
Tuesday, September 18 Special weaned/precondition calf sale
Tuesday, September 25 ABBI breeding stock sale at 8:00 am
Tuesday, September 25 End of the month bred cow sale
Thursday, September 27 Gene Baker fall Classic sale at 9:00 am

There are some outstanding local calves selling on the video sale. On the 18th there will be several hundred high quality preconditioned and weaned calves.

Bouzidan Ranch 450 Northern genetics, Ang/Red Angus, prevac.
Bowers Ranch 85 Angus/Hereford, strs/hfrs, prevacc. 400-500lbs
Davis Ranch 75 Angus/Charx strs/hfrs, weaned, vacc. 400-650lbs
R.S. Ranches 100 Ang/Limx strs/hfrs, weaned, vacc. 500-700lbs
D.K. Cattle Co 200 Angusx strs/hfrs, weaned, vacc. 400-600lbs