With the cattle numbers still at fifty year ago levels and input prices 4 to 6 times higher, it’s no wonder the market is topsy-turvy. The way beef is produced hasn’t changed much in the last century; you put the bull with the cows, take the calf to pasture, then the feedyard, the packing plant, the retailer, and finally the dinner table! There is a large difference in what is being produced and the amount of it. Fat cattle used to weigh 1000 pounds, then 1200, now they’re up to 1400 or 1500 lbs. That kind of extra tonnage makes up for a lot of cows!

Of course, our competitors have done the same thing and pork and poultry production are up quite a bit just over last year. There are record supplies of protein out there, and the good thing is, cows make better use of grass and hay than they do of corn! There is definitely only one way to get beef, and that is from a cow! With the nation’s cow herd still not building up, it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a cow herd! There appears to be plenty of old hay from last year, and plenty of moisture around here to grow some grass, and that combination may make for a great opportunity!

The overall market has been somewhat uneven lately. For the most part cattle are lower than they were a month or so ago, but some of the stocker cattle are just as high as they were last year! Feeders and calves going on feed look very high considering the cost of gain, but that beef has to be produced somewhere and it seems like the U.S. had better stay in the game!

Somehow, or someway, people are going to have to change the way they look at things. Vertical integration and conglomeration may be good for some stockholders, but what about the rest of the country? Letting foreign companies come in here and buy up our resources just because the dollar is weak for a moment doesn’t seem to make any sense. Maybe one of these days, people will think that quality, supporting the home team honesty and integrity are worth more than making an extra dollar after the first few million.

The wheat run is over, and the numbers of available cattle are going to be pretty tight looking out the window. Grass is coming on, wheat is absolutely doing flips, and corn continues to get higher. The cow herd will need built up, the feedyards will still need cattle, the packers will need cattle, and people will always need to eat! The opportunities are here and coming!

Thank You to all of our customers,

The commodity and financial markets continue to be very volatile. 800 point swings in one market, big ups and downs in the grains and cattle, housing going up or down, it all just adds up to a lot of confusion! Who knows what the market will be like next year? One thing might be for sure though, there will be more people in the world, and most everyone will have to pay taxes!

Considering what people actually spend outside their homes, it’s amazing anyone has any money left to buy new homes or cars. The national credit card debt is astronomical, and it doesn’t appear to have a top. Where does all the money come from? How can a sports player be worth $30 or $40 million dollars, and the most powerful person in the world, our United States president, be worth so much less? It sure looks like the priorities of the world are upside down.

With a baby being born every five seconds, the world population will be very large, and with all those people, someone is going to have to provide food for them. It appears like demand for beef will always be here, and as long as we have a free market system, there will always be ups and downs, but it should be fair. Depending on how you look at it, the high costs of doing business are either agriculture catching up with the rest of the world or just big companies charging what the market will bear.

Cows and calves continue to look like the best investment in the cattle industry. Apparently nobody wants to graze high priced wheat, and with the cost of gains so high in the feedyards and growlots, it’s nice to have those cows that will eat grass and old hay! So far their calves are still worth $400.00 to $600.00, with the cows costing from $600.00 to $1500.00. Like they say, why pay for the calf when you get the factory paid for in a few years?

END OF THE MONTH COW SALE NEXT TUESDAY, MARCH 25, 2008!

MC RANCH 100 Blk/Bwf cows, 3-6 yrs old, northern orig, bred Angus/Char
50 Blk/Bwf cows, 3-6 yrs old, northern orig, bred Gelbvieh
CBS RANCH 80 Blk/Bwf/Char/Red pairs, 4-10 yrs old, running with bulls
JIM EDWARDS 25 Blk/Bwf 1st calf heifer pairs, with Angus sired calves
Dean Staats 1 2 yr old Pollard Angus bull, TC Freedom bloodlines
CBS RANCH 80 Ang/Char/Limx strs/hfrs, off grass & wheat, 400-600lbs

It seems like it would take a very sharp pencil to make some of these feeder cattle work. The cost to feed one is over $100.00 in some yards, and with fat cattle are barely bringing $90.00, it looks like feeder cattle are selling extremely well. The futures board is sure enticing, with the back months on live cattle over $100.00. Maybe we can get there, but time can change a lot of things.

One nice thing about time right now is that every day is one day closer to spring and summer. So far only the birds have come out to sing, but in a very short time the bar ditches will turn green, the trees will start budding and hopefully, folks will start grilling! With so much money having to be spent on gas, and retail prices not coming down, it will be interesting to see if folks continue to eat out all the time.

There seems to be a lot of press and talk about the taking over of two of the top four packers by a foreign company. If the deal goes through, that entity will be the largest meat packer and cattle feeder in the world. So now instead of four packers trying to steal the fat cattle, there will be only three. Why anyone would want that to happen is incomprehensible.

What is an open market? It’s very hard to figure out what a hog or chicken is worth when you can’t take it anywhere to sell it. Children understand that on a hot day when lots of folks are going by you can sell a lot of lemonade. But what happens if all those folks work for the same company and they have to buy their lemonade at the company store? One thing is for sure, it’s nice to be in the stocker and feeder cattle business where you can take your cattle to the auction and know there is more than one person there to buy them.

The wheat around the country in Oklahoma looks fantastic! Barring any sure enough droughts or catastrophes, it looks like there will be an outstanding bumper crop of wheat! Fertilizer prices may affect that some, but for $12.00 wheat, it might be worth it! Let’s just hope the grass starts looking as green as the wheat.

NEXT WEEK AT WINTER LIVESTOCK:
Haws Ranch 300 Ang/Lim/Charx strs/hfrs, off wheat, 500-700 lbs
McKinley Ranch 75 Eng/Exotx strs, off wheat, 600-700 lbs
Moor Ranch 40 Fancy, Angus str/hfrs, 400-500 lbs, weaned, boostered
J & S Farms 80 Angus cross str/hfrs, 700-800 lbs

END OF THE MONTH COW SALE IS MARCH 25, 2008
Bar M Cattle Co 120 Blk/Bwf cows, 3-6 yrs old, bred Angus & Blk Gelbvieh

Maybe these high prices are here to stay. Gas, oil, fertilizer, electricity, and just about anything else that people need to buy have gotten much higher over the last several years. Agriculture seems to be the last section to stand off the high prices, but it looks at this moment like they’re holding up fairly well. The last time we had $6.00 corn, in 1996, our calves were only bringing $50.00! Today they’re still at or above $100.00, that’s great!

There seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the markets right now. Not only the agriculture industry, but in the general economy. The government keeps lowering interest rates in hopes of revving the market up, but the general population keeps spending on their credit cards like they don’t have to pay it back! What would happen if everyone had to pay off their credit cards, in full, tomorrow?

It almost seems like the agriculture industry is playing with a lot of credit right now. It’s been two maybe three years since there’s been a good wheat crop in Oklahoma, and many folks have this year’s crop tied up in paying for the last two. $12.00 wheat will go a very long way if we get a great crop, but will it go far enough? Land prices continue to get higher, with land in western Kansas $400.00 an acre higher than a year ago. Of course, they had 80 bushel wheat in places last year, too!

One thing that is sure in our favor is the cattle. Cow numbers have continued to decline, with the calf crops getting smaller, and drought forcing many cows to the packing plants. There seems to be a good run of wheat cattle right now, but many of those were just turned out 60 days ago! In two weeks or less, the wheat run will be over and then where will the cattle come from?

It will be very interesting to see what the wheat price does if some of those folks in Chicago or Kansas City would come down to Oklahoma in a couple of weeks and take a look at the wheat. It appears to be doing flip flops right now, and with all the moisture and spring around the corner, it certainly has an excellent chance of growing very well! If only grass were as good as wheat pasture for gain!

EXPECTING ANOTHER EXCELLENT RUN OF CATTLE NEXT WEEK!

Burns Ranch 180 Fancy, Angus cross strs/hfrs, off wheat, 700-900lbs
Schultz Ranch 100 Angus sired strs/hfrs, off wheat, 600-800 lbs
Cosner Ranch 80 Fancy, Limo/Charx strs, very green, cake & grass, 500-700
A & M Farms 75 Ang/Limx strs/hfrs, off wheat, 700-800 lbs