It doesn’t make much sense to get in such a hurry. The weather is better, the wheat is growing, and the cattle are just now really starting to put on some weight. At this point it doesn’t look like leaving the cattle for an extra day or week will make any difference in the wheat crop and at $12.00 or $15.00 a bushel, there is a lot of extra money to play with!

There is no guarantee that anyone will cut a crop this year. The last two or three years have been extremely tough in Oklahoma and southern Kansas with very few fields even making it to harvest. A year ago at this time, there was very little wheat even out of the ground! There appears to be a lot of fields now with the wheat just coming on, but most of these were planted very late.

Conditions are outstanding right now to make a bumper wheat crop! In a couple of weeks the country will not look the same. There has been plenty of moisture and spring time is just about here, not to mention the fact that everyone did everything that was humanly possible to get the maximum crop this year! With warmer weather and more sunshine, it sure looks like this will be one of the biggest crops ever!

Once again timing will make a big difference in things. Two to three weeks ago, it sure looked liked it might be better to graze the wheat out than pay for all the harvesting costs, but since then wheat has come up $3.00 or $4.00 and the May futures have dropped about that much! If nothing else, we sure have a lot of options that we haven’t had in several years!

The cattle market itself is great! Calves and stockers get higher every day, with yearlings holding their ground, and probably looking better after the wheat run is over! Butcher cows are very high also, with bred cows few and far between and bringing excellent money! There are only one or two more weeks of cattle coming to town, and then it looks like the wheat run might be over. If the grain market doesn’t hamper things, it is an excellent market to be selling cattle in, and maybe even better down the road!

EXCELLENT RUN OF CATTLE NEXT WEEK!

Just a little bit of time can make cattle go from losers to winners, or vice versa. During the month of January, cattle were coming to the auctions extremely green and the wheat didn’t look very good, yet in just the last few weeks, the wheat has turned a healthy green and cattle coming to town now are starting to show some flesh! Just a month ago there were several bred cows showing up, now there are not very many available, and many of those will be pairs if they aren’t already.

In just one year, we’ve gone from having no feed, no hay, and no water, to people advertising hay for sale, ponds running over, and the prospect of $10.00 wheat! With all the available hay in the area, it’s amazing that there would be any thin cattle around. Opportunities come and go with time, but it sure looks like there would be plenty of ways to handle cattle this year!

Weather always has and always will have an effect on the agriculture industry. As they say, if you don’t like the weather now, just wait a little bit and it will change! Timing has also been a major player in the scheme of things. It’s amazing how over the years the value of a fat animal has changed. Years ago they didn’t change very much in a week’s time; nowadays it might change dramatically in a day!

With the advent of the futures board, agriculture has also changed dramatically. Grains and cattle are now more intertwined than ever. Looking at the futures board, it appears like a person might just wait to sell cattle, but the grain futures may change that any day. We have a fantastic market right now, especially considering the fact that costs of gain are running near $100.00 and fats are only bringing either side of $90.00. With all the moisture, abundant hay and time, the future looks very bright!

GREAT SALE COMING NEXT WEEK!
END OF THE MONTH COW SALE ALONG WITH WHEAT PASTURE RUN!

Stockers and feeders have made some tremendous jumps in the last week, getting quoted anywhere from $1.00 to $12.00 higher! At the rate the market is going, and it doesn¡¦t turn the other direction, it won¡¦t be very long before it¡¦s right back up there at all time highs! Light weight calves have jumped from $120.00 to $140.00, with green seven weights going from $95.00 just a few weeks ago to $110.00 on grazing kind!

With the market going up like this, it¡¦s probably a good idea to take advantage of it! A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush! That philosophy can certainly be applied to both cattle and grains. For those who have been in the business for a long time, $11.000 wheat was unheard of not very long ago, and $112.00 for a feeder is a heck of a price any time! It might be time to take the money and run!

Even as good as the market is now, the cattle industry, especially the cow calf and stocker parts, look very good for down the road. Our demand is great, numbers are down, and there just seems to be fewer and fewer cattleman in the world. The capacities in the feedyards and packing plants is much larger than our supply, and as with any business, you have to have an inventory of something if you want to sell it.

With prices going up like they are, it sure looks like those bred cows would be a very good investment. Somebody is going to have to produce the calves and feeders to supply the feedyards. The world population is getting exponentially larger and our food has to come from somewhere. In the long run, it would be much better if we could produce our own beef, in a safe environment, without all the unknowns being imported in.

Solid mouth cows around the country are bringing $700.00 to $1000.00, while stocker cattle going to grass or possibly wheat are bringing $500.00 to $800.00! For the same money, a person could produce a calf for next fall and still have a cow to breed or sell. At these prices, a person might just be able to make some money!

The wheat run is starting already and it probably won¡¦t last very long! The potential to cut high dollar wheat will move a lot of cattle early, and cattle prices certainly aren¡¦t hurting things! It will be interesting to see what numbers of cattle are left in the fields after the 1st of March! It sure looks like getting numbers of cattle this spring and summer might be fairly tough to do!

In the last twenty years, our cattle herd has dropped by 40 million head, yet the world’s population has increased by who knows how many millions! There are many areas of the world that cannot afford beef, and of course, there are many countries in the world that are slowly opening their borders to American beef. When everyone finally decides to get along, we do not have near enough cattle to feed ourselves, let alone our export markets. It looks like the cattle industry has changed or is changing from a supply side industry to a demand market!

Even though our cattle numbers are lower, our beef production is higher, which somewhat offsets the lower numbers. It used to be a fat steer was finished and done at 1200 pounds, and the packers discounted extremely hard for 1300 or 1400 pound cattle! Today, if a fat steer doesn’t weigh 1300 pounds or better, or have 140 days on him he’s not considered done! All this makes for larger carcasses and more beef, but is it enough?

Beef has a lot of competition now that we didn’t before. The largest beef processor is owned by the largest hog company and hog production is at record levels! Chicken production is also setting records. A packing plant in Kansas, which processed close to 4,000 head of cattle a day, was recently closed. Economics aside, that’s over one million cattle a year that have to be hauled somewhere else, grown somewhere else and fed possibly somewhere else.

With droughts, less cattle, less packing capacity, more people, more demand and fewer people who know how to handle cattle, a person would think that the cattle business was on the verge of a huge breakthrough! High priced wheat, corn and soybeans has taken a whole lot of acres out of grazing, just to add to the mix! Looking at the futures board and all of the ingredients above, it sure looks like it should be a great market this coming spring and summer!

The wheat run is probably starting right now, and it may not last very long! With the price of wheat the way it is, there will probably be a lot of cattle come off before March 1st. Opportunity is knocking on our doors! We will have an outstanding selection of yearlings coming off of wheat here next week! Several sets of home raised cattle, and many of them carrying excellent condition! Please give us a call if we can be of any help to you. www.winterlivestock.com

Thank You

If a person looks at the futures board, the cattle market looks very similar to the wheat market. The future months are at high levels while the closer months are lower. Folks that are experienced in that arena say that’s the sign of a bear market. Whether that’s true or not, it sure looks like very good prices for our feeder cattle this coming spring!

With the May board at or near $111.00, it looks like a person could graze out wheat for more money than harvesting it. If you put two head to the acre, and they gain 2 pounds a day for 100 days, that’s 400 pounds per acre and at $111.00 per acre a person could get $444.00 per acre with cattle. At $9.00 a bushel, and 40 bushels per acre, you could receive $320.00 per acre if you harvest the wheat. It might or might not be worth $120.00 to every one, but it’s sure something to think about!

The cow market has also come up in the last week; with butcher cows getting into the $50.00’s and bred cows finding a lot of demand. Good young cows bringing $1350, with bred heifers bringing $1200.00 and older cows ranging from $600.00 to $1000.00! Calves have also come up in the last week, with light weights for grass shooting up to $140.00 and heavier calves bringing up to $125.00! Maybe there won’t be another bad day!?

Spring time is just around the corner and if the moisture will come it looks like we’ll have an abundance of grass, wheat and hay for the spring and summer. There appears to be plenty of hay bales available for sale, while alfalfa is pretty hard to find! All that feed makes those bred cows look that much more attractive, especially considering the nations cow herd still isn’t getting any bigger. Two years time might pay off the cow, and then she’ll just be making money!

We might all consider that in the last 25 years feeders have been above $100.00 at the auctions only about half that time at best. The market is very good right now, maybe not as good as last year, but still very good all the same. Demand for beef is great, especially considering how cheap and abundant pork and chicken is. The economy has been holding together very well, even with the government dropping interest rates. It might not be exactly the way we want it, but how can anyone who lives in the U.S. complain?

Looking for a very nice run of wheat pasture cattle next week! There will be several strings of steers and heifers off wheat weighing 700 to 1000 lbs. Please call or visit www.cattleusa.com if you have any consignments or questions. We really appreciate your business!