What a ride! If a person watches the futures board, on just about any commodity, it goes up and down and just about every direction but loose! Maybe that’s an indication nobody knows what’s going on. One thing is for sure though, a rock dropped in the ocean doesn’t make near the splash it does in a bathtub!
With the cattle numbers still at fifty year ago levels and input prices 4 to 6 times higher, it’s no wonder the market is topsy-turvy. The way beef is produced hasn’t changed much in the last century; you put the bull with the cows, take the calf to pasture, then the feedyard, the packing plant, the retailer, and finally the dinner table! There is a large difference in what is being produced and the amount of it. Fat cattle used to weigh 1000 pounds, then 1200, now they’re up to 1400 or 1500 lbs. That kind of extra tonnage makes up for a lot of cows!
Of course, our competitors have done the same thing and pork and poultry production are up quite a bit just over last year. There are record supplies of protein out there, and the good thing is, cows make better use of grass and hay than they do of corn! There is definitely only one way to get beef, and that is from a cow! With the nation’s cow herd still not building up, it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a cow herd! There appears to be plenty of old hay from last year, and plenty of moisture around here to grow some grass, and that combination may make for a great opportunity!
The overall market has been somewhat uneven lately. For the most part cattle are lower than they were a month or so ago, but some of the stocker cattle are just as high as they were last year! Feeders and calves going on feed look very high considering the cost of gain, but that beef has to be produced somewhere and it seems like the U.S. had better stay in the game!
Somehow, or someway, people are going to have to change the way they look at things. Vertical integration and conglomeration may be good for some stockholders, but what about the rest of the country? Letting foreign companies come in here and buy up our resources just because the dollar is weak for a moment doesn’t seem to make any sense. Maybe one of these days, people will think that quality, supporting the home team honesty and integrity are worth more than making an extra dollar after the first few million.
The wheat run is over, and the numbers of available cattle are going to be pretty tight looking out the window. Grass is coming on, wheat is absolutely doing flips, and corn continues to get higher. The cow herd will need built up, the feedyards will still need cattle, the packers will need cattle, and people will always need to eat! The opportunities are here and coming!
Thank You to all of our customers,
Weston Winter
