Everything sure seems to be spotty right now! The rains, the calf market, the financial markets, planting, harvesting, everything seems to be just jumping around. In some places, folks are hard at it trying to get wheat drilled, while in other places it’s either too dry or too wet! And those dry and wet places might not be 50 miles apart!
It seems to be a given at this moment that everyone who can will plant wheat this fall. It looks like it will be worth somewhere between $4.00 and $8.00 a bushel, so planting wheat looks like a fairly good bet. But what are those input costs, and weather patterns going to do? That’s anybody’s guess, but those questions are no different than they have been for the last 100 years!
One thing that might be different is the influence of the futures market on agricultural commodities. A hundred years ago, there was no futures board and folks relied mostly on the weather and their own hard work. Today, the hard work hasn’t changed, but what folks think they might get for their crop is a whole lot different! Not to mention that cattle are handled and affected the same way. It was my understanding that the futures board was created for the benefit of the folks raising the product and was a reflection of that particular commodity. It appears that things have been reversed and the commodity is a reflection of the futures!
The overall agriculture market is fantastic right now compared to the last 50 years! We’ve had several years now where a calf off the cow has brought over $500 a head, and in some cases over $800.00! How many years out of the last 50 can we say we’ve done that? Everyone would sure like to hit the top of the market, but isn’t nine closer to ten than it is to five?
The calf market this fall is kind of following normal patterns, with the calves right off the cow getting discounted to calves that are weaned and preconditioned. When is the difference enough? In the last week, there have been a lot of 350 to 550 lb heifer calves being quoted from $95.00 to $110.00, while at the same time, yearling heifers of the same quality have been quoted from $100.00 to $115.00! With or without wheat, low or high priced grain, and all those other factors that come into play, doesn’t it seem like getting more dollars per pound, after you add a couple hundred pounds, is a great deal? It certainly looks better than giving $140.00 for a five hundred pound steer and having to back him up $20.00 or more per hundred!
Keep in mind that over the next month, there will probably be more people in tractors than at the sale barns, and lots of high quality calves going to town. If all of our neighbors are too busy to buy calves, then isn’t that usually a good time to buy one? Think about the opportunities that are coming our way. The future looks very bright!
INTERNET VIDEO SALE NEXT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2007!
THANK YOU TO ALL OF OUR FRIENDS AND CUSTOMERS!
